Tonight at two o'clock in the middle of the night, the United States will announce the latest FMC interest rate decision. However, according to the current CME forecast data, the probability of an interest rate cut tonight is infinitely close to 0. The market expectation is to keep interest rates unchanged, so What's important tonight is still not the result, but the process. It's Powell's speech after the meeting and the dot plot, which may cause market fluctuations.
Yesterday's historic change by the Bank of Japan also had a great impact on the market. Japan ended its eight-year negative interest rate policy and announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0 to 0.1% and cancel yield curve control (YCC). ) policy and stop buying risky assets such as ETFs. The sudden turn of the tide has a certain degree of negative impact on global risk assets. Although it is not as big as the previous U.S. interest rate hike, it still has a certain disruptive effect on the crypto market that is more sensitive to exchange rates. However, many analysts are currently It is believed that Japan will not make further interest rate increases. The market is currently digesting this wave of interest rate increases, and the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has also begun to weaken.
Let’s talk about the biggest event that hit crypto last night, that is, the inflow of funds into BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF was misfired. The inflow data released by BlackRock last night was only US$74.4 million, which was a significant decrease from the US$451 million inflow the day before yesterday. Fidelity FBTC, another major ETF inflow, also continued to perform well. Yesterday's inflow was only 39.6 million US dollars, but Grayscale's outflow remained high. Yesterday's outflow amount exceeded 443 million US dollars, with one going down and the other going up. This led to the overall ETF yesterday. The net outflow exceeded US$326 million. This number significantly broke the previous outflow record. This is also the main reason why Bitcoin fell from 68,000 to below 61,000. It is said that yesterday's 8% drop was the largest single-day drop since November 9, 2022. , it can be seen how much influence ETF funds have on currency prices. Then there is also bad news for ETH ETFs. Yesterday, a Bloomberg ETF analyst said that his optimism about Ethereum spot ETFs has changed. He believes that the SEC will reject Ethereum’s ETF application on May 23 because the SEC has not yet contacted various parties. Large issuers communicate on specific matters, which is a completely different story than what happened with the Bitcoin ETF last fall.
In terms of copycats, the relatively strong sectors from yesterday to today include meme L2 modular AI and Bitcoin ecology. These are not to say how much they have increased. I can only say that they are better than other sectors. The rest are generally in a correction state. We Looking at the currency price trends in the past seven days, basically only Solana’s ecological trend is doing well. In addition to some timely and positive developments, the others, such as FTM once again moved AC out and said it was going to create a fantom sonic, which will be beneficial, and ondo because of BlackRock’s Ethereum. Tokens such as the Fang Fund, or imx's establishment of a US$100 million web3 game fund, have bucked the trend, and other projects have generally fallen by 20%.
Market analysis
BTC: Bitcoin continues to adjust deeply. The 65,000 mark has not been held. The next strong support is around 60,000. This deep adjustment cycle may take a while, such as 1-2 months, but this is also the last chance to get on board. , we can only say it, do it and cherish it. In addition to the Bitcoin ecosystem, other high-quality copycats are also very suitable for layout during the Bitcoin adjustment cycle. From ai to meme, from depin to rwa, they can be deployed bit by bit. Those who have these layouts can get the end of the year. We call it long-term fixed positions. No matter how volatile the market is, do not trade. Take a large period and only do two trades, one to buy and one to sell. Then the liquid position is more flexible, just go wherever there are hot spots.
ETH: The exchange rate of ETH against BTC continues to fall below 0.051, and there is no sign of rebound from the market. I think that even if we still follow the law of rebounding every 0.05, this rebound will not come so fast. To be safe, exchange the pie for ETH You can divide positions slowly and avoid the risk of a sudden collapse of the exchange rate.
PIXEL：
Pixel dropped to as low as 0.594, giving an opportunity to buy below 0.6. If there is still an opportunity below 0.6, buy boldly. If you have already bought, it is recommended to hold it. If it falls later, you can cover your position.
UNO:
JTO is still a relatively strong currency. It has basically not fallen much in this wave. For such a strong currency, it is the target of callbacks and attention to low prices.
ABOUT US：
Sui is also a very strong currency in this wave. It rose against the trend yesterday despite the decline of Bitcoin. This kind of currency is a strong currency and a new public chain. It is mainly to buy low and hold it. Once the market stabilizes, opportunities will explode!
SUN:
As the popularity of sol decreases, the demand for sol may become smaller, leading to the short-term decline of sol. There is no problem with sol's long-term fundamentals. It is recommended to hold the spot, and any callbacks with positions can be deployed in batches.
A new starting point for 10 times wealth: A long-term currency worth buying at the bottom of this round of corrections!
SSV, currently priced at 47U, is very optimistic about its future development. As an important patron saint of the Ethereum network, the view that it is one of the currencies with the largest ecological growth will not change and has always been verified.
STRK, the current price is 1.99U. The current technical form is very good, with a clear bottom area. Among the many L2s, its technology iteration and problem-solving capabilities are the strongest, especially the current market value is still very low compared to OP and ARB. I think it is in Ethereum. After the market starts, there will be good performance, and the main force is very strong.
ETHFI, the current price is 3.25U, the leader in the Ethereum re-staking track. It has just been launched and has a market value of more than 300 million U. Compared with the current TVL and circulating market value, it is actually obviously underestimated. In fact, the most important thing is the future of Ethereum. During the hype, the pledge data will be obviously online. As the leader of the segmented track, it will feed back the currency price! Good for the long term!
In addition, the game track family bucket (pixel, portal, bigtime, xai), and AEVO2.2u (the leader in the derivatives segment track) are both good bargain hunting targets. The ones above have the strongest correlation effect with Ethereum, but like Games and other sections will be rotated a lot! Again, hold on to your chips!
Finally, there are still many things that have not been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things often cannot be summarized in one article.
Create a high-quality circle, mainly to explain various basic industry knowledge in the currency circle, and recommend coins with market potential and altcoins! The rotation of hot spots, the basic methods of identifying tops and bottoms, how to better grasp this bull market, and a series of other knowledge, if you are interested, you can contact me.
