本周热门话题
Baby Doge ($1MBABYDOGE) 吸引了大量交易活动，价格大幅上涨 127%，创下历史新高。12 月 6 日，特斯拉创始人分享了一张他和儿子的照片，并配上“Dogefather”和“Dogeson”等字样，设计风格让人想起 1972 年的电影《教父》。他还在推文中回复了“Doge & Minidoge”。在这条推文发布后，Baby Doge 的价格飙升超过 75%，保持了上涨趋势，最终在现货市场上以 1MBABYDOGE 的价格创下 0.0067042 的历史新高。
上周，去中心化交易所和基础设施项目引起了广泛关注。Sushiswap ($SUSHI) 和 dYdX ($DYDX) 在 Convert 上的交易量分别增长了 355% 和 204%。此外，DEX 基础设施项目 0x Protocol ($ZRX) 的交易量增长了 344.6%，这得益于上周五 38% 的价格上涨。虽然比特币稳定在 9.5 万美元至 10.4 万美元的范围内，但我们的团队注意到以太坊生态系统的交易兴趣十分浓厚，投资者将资金投入 DEX 和相关项目。
整体市场
上图是BTC日K线图。
自 11 月 5 日以来，比特币经历了显著上涨，从 67,500 美元上涨至 104,088 美元，涨幅达 54.3%，创一个月新高。这一上涨主要受到唐纳德·特朗普即将上任的总统所带来的对加密货币更有利的监管环境的乐观情绪的推动。加密货币社区中的许多人认为，他的政府将实施支持数字资产的政策，这可能会促进采用和投资。资本不断涌入比特币 ETF，以及上市公司越来越多地接受比特币进入其资产负债表，表明投资者正与这种乐观前景保持一致。
然而，本周一，比特币的价格在美国交易时段从 10 万美元跌至 9.4 万美元，导致整个加密市场清算 15 亿美元，这是自 2021 年以来清算规模最大的一次。许多大市值山寨币的跌幅约为 20%，而小市值山寨币的跌幅更大。比特币价格的快速下跌让投资者质疑本轮周期的峰值是否已经到来。
Our team reviewed historical data to identify patterns in Bitcoin's price movements during similar circumstances and found parallels to events from a year ago. On October 23, 2023, Bitcoin surged in response to optimism regarding the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs, climbing 40% from $27,100 to a peak of $37,950 before a 9% retracement. For about two weeks, Bitcoin traded within the $35,000 to $38,000 range before experiencing another 18% increase. Following that, Bitcoin spent one month trading sideways, fluctuating between $40,000 and $46,000 leading up to the final approval date of January 9, 2024. Subsequently, the market encountered a sell-the-news scenario before Bitcoin rallied and reached its previous all-time high of $73,777 in March.
If the historical pattern holds, we may experience similar trading behaviours in the upcoming months before determining the peak of the Bitcoin cycle. Nevertheless, the path ahead is likely to be volatile. During this upward trajectory, we anticipate several 15% or higher corrections. Therefore, risk management is the highest priority in this exciting journey.
Options Market
On our options desk, we have seen a surge in volumes after the elections, which has sustained for over a month now. We are still seeing big moves in alts, like LTC and ATOM, which have increased 60% and 70% since the elections. BNB also saw a huge 25% uptick in a day on 3rd-4th Dec and has since dropped about 15%. We are seeing resistance/support forming on key strikes with big option open interest (OI). An increased demand for options accompanies each big move!
Specifically for BTC, the DVOL levels have sustained over 55 post-elections, with IVs sitting in the top 75 percentile of last year's levels. For ETH, we have seen DVOL rising all the way from ~60 pre-election to 70+ levels now. Just shows how unpredictable the price movement has been over the last few weeks!
As for the realized volatiles, we have seen both BTC and ETH realize much more volatility recently after being very muted in early December. While BTC has been rangebound in 95k-102k levels since early December, the amount of intraday volatility is at a high, signalling that a potential breakout might be on the way.
For BTC, the next big resistances in terms of OI levels are at 100k, 110k, and 120k, where there are a lot of open option contracts. The level of 100k seems to be very critical, with a lot of option writers sitting on calls. On the put side, the major support levels are the round strikes again: 95k, 90k, and 85k.
As for the term structure, we notice the BTC IVs drop from current levels of 63-64 to a low of 57 on the end of December expiry and then rise to a stable level of 60. We see similar drops in forward levels for most coins, indicating that people are expecting the Christmas holidays to be very quiet.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (24-12-05)
US initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, up from the previous week's 215,000, exceeding the expected figure of 215,000.
The central bank of India has maintained its interest rate at 6.50%, a decision that was largely anticipated by market participants.
Last Friday (24-12-06)
In November, the US job market made a strong recovery, adding 227,000 new jobs, exceeding the expected 202,000, after disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. However, this increase is not expected to signal a significant shift in labor market conditions that would lead the Federal Reserve to contemplate lowering interest rates in the upcoming December meeting.
The US unemployment rate experienced a minor increase from 4.1% to 4.2%, which is in line with market expectations.
On Tuesday (24-12-10)
The Reserve Bank of Australia has opted to keep its interest rate steady at 4.35%. Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the board aims to build greater confidence that inflation will consistently align with its target range of 2%-3% before cutting rates.
In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 0.2% decrease in November after seeing a 0.4% rise in October. The annual inflation saw a slight uptick from 2.0% in October to 2.2% in November.
On Wednesday (24-12-11)
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a monthly rise of 0.3% in November, resulting in an annual growth rate of 2.7%. The Core CPI also recorded a 0.3% monthly increase during the same period, equating to a 3.3% annualized increase. These CPI figures aligned with economists' expectations, bolstering the likelihood of a 25 basis-point rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week.
The Bank of Canada implemented another 50 basis point rate cut, lowering its interest rate from 3.75% to 3.25%. In the press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the central bank will shift towards a more gradual approach to monetary policy after a cumulative 175 basis point reduction over the five consecutive meetings.
Amid a favourable risk environment, all risk assets experienced significant gains, with the US stock market advancing and the cryptocurrency market recovering. Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 mark, while Ethereum surged past $3,800.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
Bitcoin experienced notable fluctuations last week, peaking above $104,000 before declining to $90,500. Although it rebounded above $100,000 over the weekend, a sharp sell-off on Monday resulted in large-scale liquidations. While BTC faced a 7% retracement, a lot of altcoins suffered corrections over 30%. On Wednesday, following the release of the US CPI report, Bitcoin and the overall market surged, driven by optimism regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
In the Fan Token market, trading volume increased by 66.2%, largely due to heightened activity around the Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token ($PSG), which saw a rally of over 40% last Sunday.
Seed 板块的交易量大幅增长了 27.6%，这主要归因于人们对 Baby Doge ($1MBABYDOGE) 的兴趣日益浓厚。
受 Baby Doge ($1MBABYDOGE) 和 Pepe ($PEPE) 强劲需求的推动，Meme 领域的交易活动也显著增长了 12.8%。
为何进行场外交易？
币安为客户提供多种方式进行场外交易，包括聊天沟通渠道和币安场外交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/otc）进行手动报价、算法订单或通过币安转换和大宗交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/convert）和币安转换场外交易 API 进行自动报价。
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