Ethereum is expected to halve on April 20, which will be one of the most important events in the future.
Although this halving event is also good news, compared with the previous two halvings, everyone should lower their expectations. Because this halving will not have a big impact on the supply of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has entered the trading era, and the mining era has long ended. At present, the total issuance of Bitcoin is close to 21 million, and 19.67 million have been mined, with a mining rate of 93.7%. Next, let's take a look at the impact of previous halving events on the market:
The first halving (2012/11/28): Ancient times, no longer mentioned;
The second halving (2016/07/09): Before the halving event, the price of Bitcoin first rose by 70%, and then fell back by 30%. In the following week, the market did not fluctuate greatly, but entered a month of decline, with a drop of 30%. Then, Bitcoin began a historical level pull-up for one year and four months, and finally reached its peak in December 2017.
The third halving (2020/05/11): Before the halving event, the price of Bitcoin first fell by 70%, and then rose by 2.6 times. Then, after the halving event, the price of Bitcoin did not fluctuate significantly, but remained in a 10% range for two months. After that, Bitcoin began to rise by 40%. In May 2021, Bitcoin finally peaked.
The fourth halving (2024/04/20): Before the halving event, the price of Bitcoin first rose by 60%, and then fell back by 18%. At present, the halving event has not occurred yet, so we will wait and see.
In summary:
Halving events usually bring benefits to Bitcoin, but expectations need to be lowered. Generally speaking, the long cycle after the halving event is definitely beneficial, but it takes about two months to realize it. In the three to four months before and after the halving, there is no obvious pattern of rise and fall in the trend of Bitcoin. It is important to note that the 2020 halving event was affected by the pandemic, while the 2024 halving event was affected by the special circumstances of ETFs.
