The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), experienced a 3.2% increase over the 12 months ending in February, marginally higher by 0.1% compared to January’s CPI. This development is not being well-received by the financial markets, as the U.S. Federal Reserve might postpone any reductions in the benchmark federal funds rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthlyinflation briefing, indicating a 3.2% rise over the last year. The core CPI, discounting food and energy costs, edged up by 0.4%. This update had a mixed impact on the markets, with certain benchmark stocks advancing, while others, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, experienced declines on Wednesday. It’s widely anticipated that this recent CPI data will influence the U.S. central bank’s strategy regarding the federal funds rate.
Areportfrom Barron’s suggests Americans should not “expect rate cuts soon,” a departure from the earlier consensus among many economists and analysts that a rate reduction was on the horizon this month. Lara Rhame, the chief U.S. economist at FS Investments, commented to Barron’s, “You can talk yourself into saying that inflation looks well contained, except for just one or two pesky pieces. But it feels like playing Whac-A-Mole when you have to do that every month.”
The elevated CPI figures from February emerge just a week before the next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. “[The CPI report] should worry inflation optimists more than last month’s,” Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstarremarkedafter the BLS inflation briefing published. “Although shelter inflation dropped in February compared to January, inflation increased in core goods and other services.”
Alongside equities, the prices ofgoldand cryptocurrencies continued to show volatility through Tuesday’s trading and into Wednesday. Currently, theCME Fed Watch toolindicates a near certainty, at 99%, that the U.S. central bank will maintain the current interest rates, with a mere 1% anticipating a cut. Just days before the release of the CPI data, the Fed Watch tool presented a slightly altered outlook. At February’s close,archived datashows the likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady was pegged at 89.5%, while a 10.5% chance of a rate cut was projected.
What do you think about the latest CPI report and the pessimism surrounding rate cuts? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
