加密货币或将在 2024 年大举进军美国政治舞台

2024 年，加密货币大举进入美国政治舞台。

该行业的超级政治行动委员会 (PAC) Fairshake 已经筹集了 1.19 亿美元，主要来自企业加密货币捐助者。

然而，也许有悖常理的是，这笔历史性巨款中，只有很少一部分会被用在副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的总统之争上。

几乎所有选举都将以“下级选举”的形式进行，即争夺美国参议院和众议院的席位——尤其是加密货币支持者与传统加密货币怀疑论者之间的对决，例如俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德·布朗 (Sherrod Brown) 和挑战者伯尼·莫雷诺 (Bernie Moreno) 之间的对决。

为什么下级选举很重要

您如何解释业界对参议院和众议院竞选的关注？

对于 Fairshake 最大的捐助者之一 Ripple 来说，答案是显而易见的。正如 Ripple 美国政策负责人 Lauren Belive 告诉 Cointelegraph 的那样：

“对于加密行业来说，这次选举并不是选择一个政党而不是另一个政党——而是支持那些认识到美国需要支持创新的候选人，否则它将继续落后于其他主要全球金融中心。”

美国法律由参议院和众议院提出、修改和批准，因此当涉及到加密货币和区块链技术的未来市场结构时，立法部门的组成至关重要。

区块链协会政府关系总监 Ron Hammond 告诉 Cointelegraph：“白宫之争总是成为头条新闻，但该行业的日常政策斗争主要发生在国会。”他补充道：

“这一趋势可能会在未来四年持续下去，因为该行业面临的许多监管痛点需要更新90年前的法律来适应这项新技术。”

因此，Fairshake 直到 2023 年 12 月才宣布进行第一轮融资，它竭力将自己展现为机会均等的加密货币支持者——既不偏袒民主党，也不偏袒共和党。

其方法似乎很有效。

加密货币公司在本次选举周期中投入的资金数额使其成为自 2010 年美国最高法院做出联合公民裁决以来最大的企业政治支出者之一。

公民公共利益研究组织总裁办公室研究主任 Rick Claypool 向 Cointelegraph 表示，这使得企业和其他外部团体能够在选举上投入无限量的资金，并补充道：

“加密货币企业政治支出的规模令人震惊。”

In point of fact, “They are dominating corporate spending in 2024 — with nearly half of all corporate money in this election so far coming from crypto corporations — and as a sector are second only to fossil fuel corporations, in terms of all corporate political spending since 2010,” commented Claypool.

Which are the critical congressional races for crypto?

So, what are the key contests that industry supporters (and foes) should be watching?

“Follow the money” is an old political adage that, if applied to the 2024 election, might lead straight to Ohio.

There, Moreno, the Republican Party challenger and founder of a blockchain firm, is trying to unseat incumbent Brown, a crypto skeptic and powerful chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

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Fairshake is allotting $12 million to Moreno’s campaign, four times more than it is sending to any other Senate contest.

“Yes, the Ohio Senate race is one of the most significant contests this cycle,” Perianne Boring, founder and CEO at The Digital Chamber, told Cointelegraph. “Chair Sherrod Brown, a career politician with over 30 years in office, has played a major role in blocking progress for the crypto sector.”

Many people think investing in cryptocurrency means big returns with zero risk.But we’ve seen thousands of scams and spectacular blowups in the crypto markets, exposing how bad actors are costing Americans millions of dollars and putting their savings and livelihoods at risk. pic.twitter.com/K3wjzxrM5p

— Senate Banking and Housing Democrats (@SenateBanking) July 28, 2022

The Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act (S.2281), a bipartisan market structure bill, “has been stalled in the Senate for over four years,” continued Boring, adding:

“Why has Chair Brown [...] who has held this role for the past four years, refused to bring the bipartisan market structure bill to a markup?”

She noted that Brown resisted even after S.2281 gained the support of his own Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer.

Apart from Ohio — and as evidence that Fairshake isn’t just boosting Republicans — the super PAC also announced in August that $3 million would be spent in Arizona and Michigan each in support of Democratic party candidates Representatives Ruben Gallego and Elisa Slotkin, respectively.

Further driving home the bipartisan message, Fairshake also reported in August that television advertising time was being reserved for nine Democratic Party House candidates and exactly the same number of Republican Party House candidates.

Committee “chairs” are worth fighting for

These down-ballot contests are important because, among other reasons, “whichever party is in the majority will get to select committee chairs for that chamber,” George Leonardo, founder of Cap Hill Crypto, told Cointelegraph.

Whichever party controls these chairs sits “in the driver’s seat” when it comes to setting policy priorities and crafting the specifics of legislation, said Leonard. “They will play a key role in the future of crypto policy in the next Congress.”

It has been significant that House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry has made digital assets a priority in the current Congress, “while Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown has not,” noted Leonardo.

According to the Blockchain Association’s Hammond, “If the Democrats flip the House, it’s likely Representative Maxine Waters will return as Chair of the pivotal [House Financial Services Committee], and while she has been less open to market structure efforts, she has long been engaged on bipartisan stablecoin legislation and likely would push for similar legislation if she were at the helm.”

Meanwhile, on the Senate side, “the prospects of a Senate Republican majority could spur other legislative developments for the industry, especially on the heels of Senator Tim Scott’s announcement of establishing a crypto subcommittee should Republicans win,” Hammond added.

Elizabeth Warren as potential Senate Banking chair

There are other interesting scenarios. “If Senator Brown loses, you could have a situation where Senator Elizabeth Warren is the top Democrat on Senate Banking,” noted Leonardo, though this also assumes that Democratic Senator Jon Tester loses in Montana, Senator Mark Warner stays on as Senate Intelligence chair, and Jack Reed remains chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Leonardo continued.

“Of course, in this scenario, Republicans would likely control the Senate, so Senator Warren would be the ranking member, not the chair,” added Leonardo.

In any event, the Ohio race “may serve as a good barometer for just how strong the crypto voting bloc is in a battleground state.”

Boring is also watching the Senate race in Massachusetts that pits Warren against Republican John Deaton, given that Warren has “become the loudest voice in the anti-crypto movement.” According to Boring:

“The most critical focus this election cycle is on defeating the ‘anti-crypto army,’ led by Senator Elizabeth Warren. It’s essential to send a clear message to Washington that the American people reject efforts to suppress blockchain innovation.”

Boring is also tracking the Senate contest in Pennsylvania where Republican Dave McCormick is challenging Senator Bob Casey. McCormick “strongly supports crypto,” according to Stand With Crypto, while Casey has been “neutral” on crypto.

“Each of these races will shape the future trajectory of crypto legislation,” said Boring.

Is the presidency even relevant?

Some claim that the growing bipartisan crypto groundswell means that market structure reform is coming to the US — no matter which party captures the White House.

As Nic Carter recently told Cap Hill Crypto: “If Republicans carry the Senate, it’s virtually guaranteed that we get meaningful clarifying legislation — and even in the case of a Harris victory, the Genslers of the world would not be confirmed.”

But this may be wishful thinking. As important as the Senate and House races may be, they don’t guarantee a positive outcome for the crypto sector.

“It absolutely matters who wins the White House,” said Boring. “On one side, we have Donald Trump running on a pro-crypto platform. If Trump wins and follows through on his campaign promises, there’s a real opportunity not only to pass a market structure bill but also to focus the entire administration on supporting and incentivizing blockchain development and investment in the US.”

“On the other hand, Vice President Harris has yet to make any clear statements on digital assets. Without a defined policy position, we have to assume the Harris campaign’s stance reflects the current Biden/Harris administration’s approach, which has effectively outsourced digital asset policy to Senator Elizabeth Warren,” said Boring.

“The White House definitely matters,” Leonardo told Cointelegraph. It’s virtually guaranteed that neither party will have the two-thirds majority needed to overcome a presidential veto were the president to object to a crypto bill — whether that be Harris or Trump — so “the White House would need to be on board with any legislation.”

Control of the US House of Representatives. Source: Ballotopedia

The president also appoints cabinet officers, including the secretary of the Treasury, as well as agency heads for the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — all of which can affect crypto and blockchain adoption.

“As we’ve seen over the last few years, federal agencies like the Treasury (through tax and illicit finance rules), the SEC (through SAB 121 and regulation by enforcement), the CFTC (through enforcement actions against decentralized finance actors like Ooki DAO and Uniswap), and banking regulators (see Operation Chokepoint 2.0) play a significant role in impacting the legal environment in which crypto builders and users must operate,” said Leonardo.

Confirming regulators and exerting oversight of federal agencies has been important in the current administration “and will be for the next, regardless of who wins the White House,” Blockchain Association’s Hammond noted.

Why Fairshake hasn’t endorsed a presidential candidate

Public Citizen’s Claypool was asked if he was surprised that Fairshake had avoided endorsing a presidential candidate — especially given that the holder of the Oval Office could ultimately veto any crypto reform legislation.

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这似乎是一件有点棘手的事情。克莱普尔回答说，如果 Fairshake 干预总统竞选，那么其两党合作的主张就“不那么可信了”。此外：

“众议院和参议院之间党派分歧均匀，这让 Fairshake 拥有很大的影响力，但这也意味着他们不能疏远任何一个党派。”

但目前，Fairshake 仍处于领先地位。

克莱普尔说：“支出的规模加上针对有争议的竞选的策略意味着，加密货币的支出有可能影响众议院和参议院的个别竞选，而且由于党派分歧较小，可能会将国会的控制权倾向于某一党派。”

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