本周，我们注意到 BTC 市场活动不活跃，波动性增加。BTC 价格很容易受到随机波动的影响，并迅速回调至之前的水平。
上周，在市场保持低迷的情况下，Radiant Capital ($RDNT) 实现了惊人的 33.7% 的增长。Radiant Capital 最近提交了 RFP-44，这是一项旨在改进 RFP-35 中最初概述的分配策略的提案。拟议的 RFP-44 旨在优化 RDNT 代币发行和跨链流动性。它具有每周重新平衡和 RDNT 持有者的 24 小时宽限期。消息一出，RDNT 价格飙升。
上周，在链上分析师发现交易所存入了一笔巨额存款后，流行的 meme 币 Floki Inu ($FLOKI) 的价格下跌了 21.1%。该地址已经两年半没有活动了，在 2022 年初积累了这笔资金。因此，FLOKI 市场收到了这笔交易可能引发市场抛售的警报，我们的交易台发现，在这笔存款之后，市场缺乏支撑需求。
整体市场
上图显示了
1天图中的
BTC价格走势。
正如我们在 8 月中旬讨论的那样，我们的部门预计市场将持续低迷直至 8 月底。我们预计市场活动将在 9 月份回暖。
BTC 在过去五个月一直横盘整理，高点不断走低，低点也不断走低，如图所示。市场势头更偏向熊市。
8 月 5 日之后，一个新的支撑区间在 57,000 美元附近形成，并在周四美国交易时段突破。下一个强劲支撑位将是 50,000/52,000 美元区间，市场在 8 月 5 日因美元/日元套利交易平仓而引发的崩盘期间测试了该区间。
9 月 3 日星期二，日本央行行长上田重申，如果市场条件得到满足，央行将继续加息。这一强硬声明提振了日元，同时引发了新一轮风险资产抛售。比特币一度跌破 56,000 美元，但随后迅速收复失地。
两周后将举行 FOMC 会议，市场预计美联储将在本次会议上降息 25 个基点。然而，鉴于本周公布的劳动力市场和 PMI 数据差于预期，降息 50 个基点的可能性正在增加。我们的部门认为，如果美联储在 9 月 18 日降息 50 个基点，风险资产可能会经历另一轮恐慌性抛售。这有可能将比特币的价格推至 40 多美元，从而有效结束由现货 ETF 推动的这一牛市周期。
期权市场
上表是 BTC 和 ETH 期权的 25-delta 偏度。
A 25-delta skew on options is commonly used as an indicator of market sentiment. A negative skew means that put premiums are higher than call premium, which suggests that the market is more bearish.
As shown above, the indicators show strong bearish sentiment on BTC and ETH options in the short term, but it remains positive in the long run. This market observation corresponds to the recent bearish momentum observed in BTC and ETH prices.
As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, investors and hodl-ers can use options to mitigate downside risks while maintaining their positions and riding out the volatile market.
Binance users can use our Options RFQ platform to trade options without worrying about market liquidity on the order book. Users can also reach out to our OTC desk for live quotes for larger sizes that may not be supported on the Option RFQ platform.
You can find out more about options RFQ by visiting: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/trading?ref=OTC-Option
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (24-08-29)
Germany's monthly CPI fell by 0.1% in August, compared to the estimated 0.0% and 0.3% increase in July. The annualised CPI rose by 1.9%, less than the expected 2.1% and the 2.3% seen in July. The inflation in Germany serves as a proxy for measuring inflation in the eurozone. Germany's lower-than-expected inflation raises the prospect of another rate cut by the ECB at its September meeting.
In Q2, the US GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% QoQ, exceeding the previously estimated 2.8% growth rate. The stronger-than-expected GDP growth eased some market concerns about a hard landing for the US economy.
This week's initial jobless claims in the US were 231k, similar to the number reported last week.
Last Friday (24-08-30)
In August, the CPI reading in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% month over month. The annualised CPI rose 2.2%, which was lower than the 2.6% increase in July. The eurozone's slowing inflation paved the way for the ECB to cut interest rates again in September.
The US inflation rate, based on changes in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, remained at 2.5% per year in July, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The monthly personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.2%, as expected.
The core PCE price index increased by 2.6% over the same period, matching the increase in June but lower than the market forecast of 2.7%. The core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month over month, as expected.
The July PCE data were in line, paving the way for the Fed's first rate cut of the cycle in September.
On Tuesday (24-09-03)
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Tuesday that if the economy and prices perform as expected, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below the forecasted 47.5.
9 月的第一个交易日，GPU 芯片制造商 Nvidia 遭遇 10% 的抛售。收盘后，头条新闻披露美国司法部 (DOJ) 已向 Nvidia Corp. 和其他公司发出传票，以调查正在进行的反垄断调查。
星期三 (24-09-04)
加拿大央行将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25%，这是自 6 月份以来第三次连续降息。央行行长蒂芙·麦克莱姆在决定降息后表示，如果通胀率继续回升至央行 2% 的目标，则“有理由预期进一步降息”。
美国7月就业岗位空缺从6月的791万下降至767.3万，远低于预测的809万。就业岗位数据疲软增加了美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性。消息公布后，美元下跌，比特币价格升至58k上方。
转换门户体积变化
上表显示了我们的转换门户上各区域的成交量变化。
整个 8 月的最后一周，我们的交易部门发现市场活动普遍放缓。虽然 BTC 在 60,000 美元以下横盘整理且交易量较低，但我们的交易部门并未发现交易量较高的山寨币出现抛售。
上周支付区交易量下降34.4%，主要原因是BTC交易需求低迷。
POW 区域的交易量在同一时期内下降了 34.9%。比特币 ($BTC) 交易量的下降对该区域的影响最大。
此外，Metaverse 区域下跌了 38.8%。成交量下跌主要是因为达拉尼亚矿山 ($DAR)。
为何进行场外交易？
币安为客户提供多种方式进行场外交易，包括聊天沟通渠道和币安场外交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/otc），用于手动报价、算法订单或通过币安转换和大宗交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/convert）和币安转换场外交易 API 进行自动报价。
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