金砖国家加密货币对美元的黑暗预测

昨天，著名投资者罗伯特·清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）基于所谓金砖国家的加密货币的假设，对美元做出了明确的负面预测。

清崎经常发布预测，他们通常对经济和金融的未来感到悲观，尤其是在美国，而他却坚决看好比特币。

清崎的预测：金砖国家加密货币将终结美元

昨天清崎在南非，这个国家对应于金砖国家缩写中的S。

On X 写道，金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）将生产金砖国家加密货币，可能由黄金支持。

如果发生这种情况，畅销书《富爸爸穷爸爸》的作者预测，他们将积累数万亿法定货币。

这可能会将许多美元带回美国，导致恶性通货膨胀，并最终导致美元的毁灭。

有鉴于此，它明确建议立即购买黄金、白银和比特币，以保护自己免受美元崩溃的影响。

以黄金为基础的加密货币

已经有几种由黄金支持的加密货币，称为稳定币，但到目前为止，它们都没有积累大量资本。

参考其他美元支持的稳定币，USDT 市值超过 1100 亿美元，USDC 超过 330 亿美元，而黄金支持的稳定币市值则明显较少：主要的两个是市值较高的 XAUT（Tether Gold） 5.78 亿美元（5.78 亿），而 PAXG（PAX Gold）则未达到 4.3 亿。

所有其他的实际上都是无关紧要的。

总体而言，所有由黄金支持的加密货币价值约为 10 亿美元，这不仅比比特币低一千倍，而且最重要的是比黄金本身低近 16,000 倍。

到目前为止，黄金支持的加密货币取得的成功微乎其微，可能是因为人们更喜欢购买黄金 ETF 而不是黄金支持的加密货币。很难想象这种动态在未来会发生改变。

金砖国家加密货币：罗伯特清崎对美元的负面预测

此外，迄今为止，创建由黄金支持的金砖国家加密货币的项目似乎还没有启动。

事实上，尽管金砖国家已经谈到了发行自己的货币来与美元竞争的可能性，但目前很难想象他们能够达成协议。

中国和印度实际上根本没有田园诗般的关系，过去两国经常因领土问题发生冲突：两国在喜马拉雅山附近接壤，特别是在克什米尔地区，也存在领土争端。与巴基斯坦。

So while it may be difficult for the so-called BRICS to reach an agreement to issue a single currency, on the other hand they could individually issue their own stablecoins based on gold.

However, it is not convenient for a State to buy gold to issue money based on it, because States instead benefit from issuing fiat currency by creating it out of nothing.

All BRICS countries, as well as almost all other countries in the world, issue their own fiat currency, which in some cases has also lost a lot of value against the dollar. For example, in the last five years, the Chinese yuan has lost almost 5% against the US dollar, while the Indian rupee has lost 15%. The Russian ruble, on the other hand, has lost a staggering 30%.

It is really hard to imagine that similar states can change course and issue new currencies actually backed by gold.

Gold and fiat currencies

For a long time there has been discussion about the opportunity to link national currencies to gold.

The US dollar, for example, was detached from gold in the early 1970s, but in truth since then the Dollar Index, which measures the value of the American dollar against a basket of other important national currencies, has remained relatively stable.

However, in 1924 1$ had lost 66% of its purchasing power in the following 50 years, until 1974.

Instead, in the last 50 years it has lost 83% of its purchasing power, after being detached from gold.

So the convertibility into gold does not zero out inflation, but only limits it.

Furthermore, there is now no State in the world that has a currency truly backed 100% by gold, also because there does not seem to be enough gold in the world to support all fiat currencies.

Cryptocurrencies and gold

The very limited success achieved by gold-backed cryptocurrencies only underlines how little importance this precious asset has in today’s monetary field.

The most successful cryptocurrencies are those that do not have collateral, like fiat currencies.

In fact, when gold-backed cryptocurrencies were introduced to the market, investors did not buy them in large quantities. Cryptocurrencies backed by fiat currencies, especially the US dollar, are much more popular.

The era of gold as currency is probably definitively over decades ago, and today it doesn’t seem at all that it has the possibility of returning to that role, despite there being theoretically suitable technologies that could help it regain that role.

On one hand, fiat currencies have triumphed in the markets, even though none of them have eternal life, and on the other hand, there is now Bitcoin which serves as an excellent substitute.

Therefore, Kiyosaki’s prediction seems decidedly forced, since it is based solely on a vague idea before any concrete foundation: no BRICS country is working on any cryptocurrency, neither backed by gold nor uncollateralized.

At most, they are working on CBDC, namely fiat currencies that are natively digital, uncollateralized, and non-convertible.