比特币 (BTC) 价格会在未来几周内暴跌 20% 吗？

比特币 (BTC) 价格会在未来几周内暴跌 20% 吗？

这是加密货币专家 Michael van de Poppe 的预测

最终的问题是比特币的价格在未来一段时间内会发生什么变化。

一周内资金流入净额超过 20 亿美元。

我们对比特币能期待什么？

比特币的价格一直在加速上涨。

在 ETF 推出之前，价格已从 25,000 美元上涨至 49,000 美元。

此后，市场情绪迅速转向极度负面情绪，表明由于 GBTC 流出，市场不得不跌至 3 万美元。

然而，市场从 39,000 美元逆转，表明人们对比特币现货 ETF 产生了浓厚的兴趣，最终达到 53,000 美元的峰值并持续流入。

这对我们意味着什么？

1⃣ - 情绪始终是一个错误的指标。

这仍然有效。

以下是近期情绪的一些例子：

- 在 ETF 获得批准之前，有传言称比特币可能会达到新的 ATH，并且越来越强。

最终，潜在的批准本身就表明了市场的潜在实力，导致价格从 25,000 美元上涨至 49,000 美元。

然而，市场的强势已经反映在实际的价格走势中，但随着情绪反映到情景中，情绪总是过度调节，这就是情绪对交易/投资产生不良影响的原因。

- 第二个例子是从 49,000 美元实际调整至 39,000 美元，导致负面情绪。

为什么？

GBTC 的资金外流一直在发生，因此，这种资金外流将对市场产生持续负面影响的预期，导致更广泛的调整。

这又是一个情绪超出现实的例子。

- 第三个例子是当前的势头。

由于现货 ETF 的流入，市场对市场产生了巨大的兴趣。

然而;

这是否意味着兴趣将保持持续。

如果利息减慢怎么办？

还是灰度的流出增加？

或者其他宏观经济影响也会产生影响？

情绪总是超出现实，情绪远远超过价格走势，这就是人们开始赔钱的原因。

无论你喜欢与否，市场随时都会对事件进行定价。

2⃣ - 如果您想投资#Bitcoin，您的游戏计划应该是什么？

一个相对严格和简单的游戏计划。

在制定游戏计划时，您应该将两件事分开。

- Trading or swingtrading purposes. Ultimately, a trade is defined on the horizon that you're looking to hold the asset (including the timeframes you're using for your analysis). If your horizon is relatively short, then it might not be +EV to buy an asset that appreciated 35% in 10 days. Same goes for swingtrading purposes.

Why is that?

Well, let's assume that the risks of a correction have increased. If you think that a correction to $45K has a chance of 30-35% and a potential upwards push to $60K has 60% chance, it might be -EV to actually take the trade.

If markets correct from $55K to $46K and are seeing a 20% correction, those odds of an upwards move and downwards continuous correction are flipping more in favour of a long. That's the methodology you should be using when it comes to trading.

- Investing purposes. This basically comes down to your risk appetite, and again, horizon. If you want to start investing, I would suggest to wait for a standard 20-40% correction on Bitcoin to happen. You'll tackle a few important points: buying in corrections (the opposite of the sentiment at that point) and being able to control those emotions.

However, if your horizon is 2-3 years from now and you suspect to see Bitcoin at $150K+ in that window, then there's no big issue of starting to scale in at these prices. Once again, there's more confirmation to enter the markets in a correction than in an upwards push.

3⃣ - What are the expectations?

Honestly, I think the moment that macro-economic events are slightly negative (we've seen a slightly higher CPI last week), it would suggest that we're going to see a correction.

This can also be a case where the inflow is decreasing or any other factor (remind yourself: there are more parties involved in the markets outside of the ETF who could be selling) leading to a switch in sentiment and therefore a substantial correction.

Those corrections, with the current sentiment, are going to be swift. I don't know exactly from where these will happen, but given the data it's reasonable to suspect that the markets are peaking between $53-58K and are getting a 20-40% correction from there.

Whether it's going to be in the coming weeks, or whether it's in March, I don't know. What I do know, is that markets are moving organic and do have those corrections, despite the overall sentiment.$BTC