投资者和专家都注意到了比特币价格突破 47,000 美元大关的惊人成就。这一显着的转变引起了两个群体的注意。这种大幅的价格变动可能与三个主要原因有关:大量投资现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)、期货市场的大量行动以及压缩时期的技术突破。所有这三个因素都导致了显着的价格变动。在本节中,我们将更详细地研究这些贡献方面中的每一个。 1 比特币交易所交易基金经历创纪录的资金流入
尽管灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 已撤资超过 1.016 亿美元,但 2 月 8 日,市场上仍有 4.03 亿美元的资金涌入现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF)。这是第三大单笔资金。日内净流入。自1月11日推出这些交易所交易基金(ETF)以来,总流入量已超过21亿美元,相当于超过20万个比特币。这一行动表明投资者对比特币表现出日益增长的渴望。 通过使用 X,彭博社著名的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 专家 Eric Balchunas 提供了对这些金融工具前所未有的表现的见解。上市仅一个月后,他发表了以下声明:“凭借超过 30 亿美元的资产,[贝莱德] IBIT 和 [富达] FBTC 在资产排名前 25 名交易所交易基金 (ETF) 中脱颖而出。” 巴尔丘纳斯进一步评论了目前正在发生的竞争动态,他说“真正看不见的力量是竞争。”同一天同时推出十只交易所交易基金(ETF),其中包括一些最著名的发行人,确实引发了资金流入热潮,显示出对市场主导地位的积极追求。
2 期货市场动态和空头清算
According to statistics provided by Glassnode, the Bitcoin futures market has seen a significant short liquidation event, with the total amount of liquidations hitting $52.09 million in the previous twenty-four hours. The greatest single liquidation order on Bitmex (XBTUSD), which was valued at $5.11 million, had a significant role in highlighting this event.Skew, a cryptocurrency expert, discussed the issue and made the following observation: "I would say that the majority or a decent portion of the revenge shorts that were fading the grind higher were squeezed out above $45K into the current price area." It is much more noteworthy that spot flows are occurring here, particularly when longs have begun to pursue price. Take note of the fact that declining perp discounts are more likely to be applied to possible premiums in the future; if another squeeze higher comes with high perp premiums and spot selling, it would most likely be the local high of this rally.According to Vetle Lunde, a Senior Analyst at K33 Research, the CME basis has recovered to levels that were witnessed before the entry of ETFs, and there has been a significant rise in open interest. The base of CME has restored to the levels it was at before the ETF. Over the course of the previous three days, open interest has increased by 15.6 thousand BTC, which is equivalent to a sixteen percent increase. Active market players, who are not exchange-traded funds, are the source of almost all growth. It was observed by Lunde that the OI within this group has returned to the levels it was at before the ETF.
3 A Breakout in Technical Analysis, as Indicated by the BBW
A breakout from a period of compression was discovered by the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) indicator, which gave a vital signal for the current price action. This indicator indicated a breakout from the compression phase. A time of low volatility and an imminent'squeeze' is indicated by the fact that the BBW plummeted to a position as low as 0.11.As reported by NewsBTC, Bitcoin saw significant price swings immediately after the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) dropped to levels that were comparable to those that occurred in the past. Events from the past provide a glimpse of possible tendencies that may emerge in the future.On October 13 of the previous year, when the BBW hit a similar low, Bitcoin promptly began on a major rebound, attaining a more than thirty percent rise in only ten days. This remarkable surge continued until the present day. On the other hand, the value of Bitcoin dropped by fifteen percent during the course of a just eight days and occurred in the middle of August 2023. In addition, Bitcoin had a remarkable increase in the beginning of January 2023, with its value rapidly increasing by forty percent in only seventeen days.When these past trends are taken into consideration, the Bitcoin Boltzmann Wave (BBW) has once again shown its significance as an indicator for forecasting the next significant price movement of Bitcoin.