币安研究院：2024 年加密货币的主要趋势

主要要点

• 在本博客系列中，我们对币安研究团队的研究结果进行了简要总结，邀请您更深入地了解原始报告。

• 本文预览了最近的币安研究报告，讨论了进入新的一年时应遵循的顶级加密货币叙事。

• 虽然现在判断我们是否处于牛市还为时过早，但比特币、DeFi、稳定币和 NFT 等领域的最新发展为 2024 年生态系统描绘了积极的前景。

2023 年，加密行业重新焕发活力。

虽然现在明确宣布牛市回归还为时过早，但情况看起来比一段时间以来更有希望。

根据对近期事件和趋势的观察，币安研究团队汇总了未来几个月要遵循的几个关键叙​​述和指标。

以下是我们进入新的一年时应遵循的主要加密货币趋势。

比特币

2023 年对比特币来说是多事的一年，整个投资领域都出现了重大发展。

在加密原生方面，我们看到了 Ordinals 协议的出现，它使铭文（通常称为“比特币 NFT”）等新创新获得了关注。

在传统金融方面，

美国

资料来源：CoinMarketCap、雅虎财经、币安研究院（2023 年 12 月 5 日）

鉴于这些发展，比特币的表现优于许多其他主要资产和指数，包括传统资产和加密货币。

截至2023年12月5日，BTC市值同比上涨162%。

2024 年 BTC 的一些最重要的发展包括以下内容。

美国现货 BTC ETF 获批

尽管美国受监管的现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的潜力早已存在，但 2023 年这方面出现了显着的积极进展。

8 月，美国法院就灰度与美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 就灰度比特币信托 (GBTC) 转换为现货 BTC ETF 的争议做出了有利于灰度的裁决。

这一有利的裁决促使许多其他参与者，包括全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德，以及富达和景顺，在接下来的几个月里提交了自己的现货 BTC ETF 申请。

目前，共有 13 只现货 BTC ETF 申请正在接受 SEC 审查。

其中，最早的最终截止日期为2024年1月，最晚的为8月。

资料来源：彭博社、币安研究院

比特币减半

Bitcoin miners are incentivized to validate transactions and secure the blockchain through two mechanisms: block rewards and transaction fees, with the former traditionally accounting for the majority of miners’ income. Block rewards are paid out for each newly mined block, which happens every 10 minutes on average, and halved every 210,000 blocks, which happens roughly every four years.

Given BTC’s fixed maximum supply of 21,000,000 units, the halving introduces further scarcity designed to increase its price over time, thereby reinforcing the narrative of BTC as “digital gold” or a safe-haven asset. When the Bitcoin blockchain first launched in 2009, block rewards started at 50 BTC per block. After subsequent halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the current reward is 6.25 BTC per block. The next halving is expected to occur in April 2024, after which the block reward will be 3.125 BTC per block.

Source: Binance Research

Ordinals and inscriptions

One of the most significant Bitcoin developments in 2023 has been the advent of ordinals and inscriptions. The Ordinals protocol went live at the start of the year and involves the tracking of individual satoshis (sats) based on what the founder, Casey Rodarmor, calls “Ordinal theory.”

Sats are the smallest unit of bitcoin, and each BTC contains 100,000,000 of them. The Ordinals protocol enabled each sat to be ascribed with a unique identifier. These sats could then be “inscribed” with arbitrary content, such as text, images, videos, etc., creating “inscriptions” that are often referred to as “Bitcoin NFTs.”

Source: Dune Analytics (@dgtl_assets), Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

Ordinals and inscriptions also led to the emergence of BRC-20 tokens in March 2023, enabling the deployment, minting, and transferring of fungible tokens on Bitcoin for the first time ever. While inscriptions are the non-fungible application of the Ordinals protocol, BRC-20 tokens are their fungible counterpart.

After the initial frenzies following the launch of ordinals and BRC-20 tokens, the market cooled off somewhat before ramping up again. November saw a significant resurgence in activity, being the highest month ever at over 8,300,000 total inscriptions, up 362% from the lows of October.

The advent of ordinals has introduced new excitement and innovation into the Bitcoin ecosystem. It is yet another development that shows that we are in an important period of Bitcoin’s history as we move into 2024.

Stablecoin Supply

Stablecoin supply is a measure of the amount of capital that is readily available for investing in crypto assets at any given point in time, thereby indicating potential buying pressure. For the first time since Q1 2022, the quarterly net change in the supply of the top five stablecoins by market capitalization has turned positive in Q4 2023. It will be worth keeping an eye on this metric in the coming months to see whether this change was temporary or representative of a more sustained uptrend.

Source: DeFiLlama, Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

NFT Volumes

Throughout 2023, non-fungible token (NFT) trading volumes saw a significant downturn, decreasing to new yearly lows each month from February to September. However, in October, this trend was finally reversed, and we saw a considerable uptick in trading volumes in November.

A key highlight here is the growth of Bitcoin NFTs, which were the most popular type of NFTs in November, with over $375,000,000 in trading volume. Besting even Ethereum, this is a remarkable achievement for Bitcoin, as it has long been considered unsuitable for NFTs and other applications beyond peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions.

Source: CryptoSlam!, Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

Note: “Other” refers to the remaining 10 chains among the top 15 chains by all-time NFT volume

After months of depressed prices and pessimism, November’s surge in trading volumes can be taken as an indication of positive market sentiment and a revival of the NFT scene. It will be key to watch these NFT trends in 2024 to see whether the market sustains its revitalization.

Protocol Fees

As the industry matures and protocols move toward revenue generation, the fees generated by top crypto projects will be an important metric to follow. Fees have steadily risen throughout 2023. In November, fees for the top 20 crypto projects across all sectors were more than 88% higher than in January.

Source: Token Terminal, Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

Note: “DeFi” refers to Lido, Uniswap, Convex, GMX, PancakeSwap, MakerDAO, Aave, dYdX, Venus and Curve. “NFT” refers to OpenSea, Manifold.xyz, and Blur. “Other” refers to Flashbots and friend.tech.

Ethereum is by far the largest generator of fees, having accumulated more than double the fees of any other protocol. Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are collectively the second-largest fee generator after Ethereum, with Lido and Uniswap leading the market. While DeFi projects and layer 1s (L1s) have been dominant in fee generation this year, NFTs also make up a significant portion of fee revenues. Here, OpenSea is firmly in the lead, with nearly double the fees of Manifold and over double the fees of Blur.

Overall, fee generation is an indicator of a sustainable business model, so it was encouraging to see these figures grow throughout 2023. As we move into the new year, it will be important to keep a close eye on which protocols and subsectors are able to demonstrate the best fee growth.

Layer 1s

While Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract L1 by most metrics, other alternative L1 solutions have also shown promise throughout 2023, with some even outperforming Ethereum. Watching this trend into 2024 will be crucial to see whether Ethereum retains its dominance in the L1 landscape.

Source: CoinMarketCap, Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

Solana has been the most notable performer in 2023, particularly with the market capitalization of the SOL token increasing around 56% in November. Toncoin has also made considerable progress this year, with The Open Network’s partnership announcement with Telegram in September being a major highlight.

Numerous other developments have occurred in all major L1s. Following its Shanghai Upgrade in April, Ethereum enabled staked ETH withdrawals, birthing huge DeFi markets in liquid staking and LSDFi. With continued ecosystem growth, BNB Chain launched opBNB, an optimistic L2 based on the OP Stack, and BNB Greenfield, a next-generation data storage platform.

SocialFi

The social potential of blockchain applications has long been anticipated, leading to the emergence of SocialFi – short for “social finance,” denoting the convergence of DeFi and social media. 2023 saw a product-driven uptick in this subsector, with friend.tech in particular grabbing the attention of many.

Source: Dune Analytics (@cryptokoryo), Binance Research (November 30, 2023)

By the end of November, friend.tech was able to generate over $25,000,000 in protocol fees since launch. After surging in August and September, its daily activity has since slowed down in the last couple of months. Nevertheless, the product is still in its beta mode, and a full launch is expected soon.

The attention that friend.tech garnered, particularly from influencers outside of the crypto space, indicated the potential of Web3 social apps. Other notable projects on this front include Farcaster, Lens Protocol, and Binance Square. In 2024, SocialFi’s ability to gain further traction will define the shape of social interactions on Web3 for years to come.

Closing Thoughts

The last few months of 2023 have brought a refreshing shift of sentiment in and around the crypto industry. Amid the growing buzz, the arrival of new market players, and the escalating frenzy, it's vital to monitor the key indicators and stay ahead of significant narratives, with this article highlighting key talking points and critical metrics to follow as we move into 2024.

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进一步阅读

• 币安研究院：加密货币的主要趋势 – 2023 年 12 月

• 币安研究院：探索比特币的演变

• 币安研究院：加密货币的主要趋势 – 2023 年 11 月

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